Quick answer: Wholesale prices are more likely to ease than rise through 2027, but nobody can promise it. Forward markets price summer 2027 and winter 2027/28 gas roughly a quarter below this winter, yet still around three times the pre-2021 norm. Low European storage could delay any relief, so plan around your contract end date instead of waiting for a fall.
Opened a gas bill lately and winced? You are not alone. The UK natural gas price jumped after the Middle East conflict disrupted LNG supplies, and it has stayed volatile ever since. Between 30 October and 9 November alone, winter gas fell by about a fifth.
So where does it go in 2027? This guide sets out where wholesale prices stand, what forecasters expect, why a falling wholesale price does not automatically mean a cheaper bill, and how fixed energy deals can protect your budget. It is written for UK business owners, because business gas sits outside Ofgem's price cap. We help businesses compare gas, electricity and water contracts at SwitchUrEnergy, so we know how forecast headlines turn into real renewal decisions.
Where the UK natural gas price stands today
Wholesale gas trades in pence per therm at the National Balancing Point (NBP). At the 9 November close, gas for January to March 2027 settled at 201 pence per therm, according to Catalyst Commercial's market report. That is roughly 6.9p per kWh before network costs, levies and supplier margin. Hopes of progress over the Strait of Hormuz and more LNG tankers leaving the region helped pull winter gas about a fifth below its 30 October peak.
Lower is relative, though. Prices topped 500p per therm in 2022 and averaged only 40p to 50p before 2021, and the quarterly average was around 112p in the second quarter of 2026. Today's winter price is about 80% above that.
Table 1: UK wholesale gas forward prices, 9 November 2026
Contract | Pence per therm | Pence per kWh | Versus Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
Day-ahead | 204.80 | 6.99 | +2% |
Q1 2027 (January to March) | 201.23 | 6.87 | Base |
Summer 2027 | 153.61 | 5.24 | -24% |
Winter 2027 (2027/28) | 146.99 | 5.02 | -27% |
Source: Catalyst Commercial, indicative levels. We converted to p/kWh at 1 therm = 29.3071 kWh
Storage matters too. Britain's gas storage is about 55% full, the lowest of the major European markets, and the Rough site is still empty.
Why wholesale prices could fall in 2027
Here is the analysis of both possible fall or rise in the upcoming year.
The case for easing
Table 1 shows the market's own view: gas for later periods is cheaper. Summer 2027 sits about 24% below this winter, and winter 2027/28 about 27% below. Oxford Economics agrees on the direction, expecting gas to stay elevated through winter 2026 to 2027 before easing as global LNG supply expands.
Supply is the key. Before the conflict, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies expected global LNG export capacity to grow by around 113 billion cubic metres between 2025 and 2027, putting downward pressure on prices. That forecast pre-dates the conflict, so timing may slip, but it explains why easing is the central expectation. Europe also uses about a fifth less gas than in 2021, which cushions shocks.
The case against
Three risks stand in the way.
Thin storage. EU storage hit its lowest September level in 15 years, says Cornwall Insight. Oxford Economics has European stocks at just 17% of capacity by 1 April 2027 in its baseline, and ENTSOG warns storage could fall well below 30% by the end of winter if LNG deliveries stay limited.
Missing supply. Atlantic LNG supply grew by about 17 billion cubic metres this summer, which does not replace roughly 30 billion cubic metres of lost Qatari and UAE volumes, according to LSEG data reported by Envantage. Europe's ban on Russian LNG imports also starts on 1 January 2027. Our guide to LNG, Hormuz and the UK natural gas price explains the supply chain.
The refill squeeze. If Europe exits winter with depleted stocks, summer buying to rebuild them could push prices up again. LCP Delta assumes LNG prices stay around 50% above pre-conflict averages through much of 2027, even if a ceasefire holds, as Switch Pilot reports.
UK gas price forecast 2027: three scenarios
Forward prices are not forecasts. They show what the market charges today to lock in supply, including a premium for risk. So instead of inventing a single number, we use three scenarios to frame your decision. This is our own framework, not a prediction.
Table 2: Three ways 2027 could play out
Scenario | What happens | Wholesale effect | What it means for a business |
|---|---|---|---|
Gradual easing | Hormuz talks hold, LNG flows rise, storage refills steadily | Prices drift towards the summer 2027 and winter 2027/28 levels | Contracts starting from April 2027 price off cheaper seasons |
Slow squeeze | Cold weather drains storage and summer refilling competes with Asian buyers | Prices stay elevated and the curve flattens | Waiting costs more, fixed energy deals look better |
Fresh shock | Talks collapse or supply is disrupted again | Sharp spikes, like early September, when wholesale prices hit a four-year high before falling back | Out-of-contract rates hurt, a fixed price protects you |
What lower wholesale prices mean for your bill
Wholesale gas is typically 60% to 75% of a delivered business gas bill, with transport, metering, the Climate Change Levy and supplier margin making up the rest. That is why business gas tracks wholesale more closely than electricity does. For larger sites fixing today, Catalyst estimates delivered rates of 8.7p to 9.2p per kWh for Q1 2027 and 7.1p to 7.6p for summer 2027. Smaller sites usually pay more per kWh.
Households see a slower, lumpier picture. Ofgem's cap looks backwards: the January to March 2027 cap uses wholesale prices from 19 August to 17 November, and Ofgem will announce it on 25 November. Most of the autumn highs are already baked in, while the recent fall counts towards the April cap.
Table 3: Household price cap path (typical dual fuel, Direct Debit)
Period | Annual cost | Status |
|---|---|---|
1 October to 31 December 2026 | £1,723 | Confirmed |
1 January to 31 March 2027 | £2,199 | Supplier average prediction (+28%) |
1 April to 30 June 2027 | £2,251 | Supplier average prediction |
Illustrative predictions. Cornwall Insight's earlier forecast for January was £1,999.
Businesses get no cap at all, as we explain in our guide on whether the energy price cap applies to businesses. Your price depends on your contract and your renewal date.
Practical examples: three businesses, three renewal dates
These examples are illustrative. They use Catalyst's indicative delivered rates, exclude VAT and standing charges, and show how timing changes the sums.
1. The small hotel renewing on 1 April 2027 (300,000 kWh a year).
A contract starting in April opens in summer pricing. At 7.1p to 7.6p per kWh, the unit cost is about £21,300 to £22,800. Fixing at winter levels of 8.7p to 9.2p would cost £26,100 to £27,600. Starting in April is worth roughly £4,800 a year at the midpoints. Begin comparing now, then act when a quote hits your budget.
2. The dental practice using 20,000 kWh.
A 1p per kWh swing is only £200 a year. For small users, perfect timing is not worth the stress. Compare, pick a 12 or 24 month fixed deal and move on. Our guide to business gas rates for restaurants, bakeries and takeaways covers similar small sites.
3. The warehouse already out of contract (100,000 kWh).
At 9p per kWh, the unit bill is £9,000. Suppose out-of-contract rates run 25% higher (an assumption, as premiums vary). That adds £2,250 a year, or about £188 a month, for doing nothing. Check your MPRN and contract details and compare today.
Fixed energy deals or flexible: which suits 2027?
Fixed energy deals lock your unit rate for the term, commonly one to three years. Because the forward curve slopes downwards, a longer fixed term blends in cheaper later seasons, so a 24-month deal can price below a 12-month one. Some brokers recommend a 24-month term to balance price certainty with access to lower summer 2027 and later periods. The trade-off is that if prices fall faster than expected, you stay on your agreed rate.
Table 4: Contract types compared
Contract | Price certainty | Main risk | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
Fixed (12 to 36 months) | High | Locked in if the market falls, possible exit fees | Most small and medium businesses |
Flexible or basket | Medium, built over time | Needs monitoring, exposed to spikes | Larger users who can absorb swings |
Out of contract or deemed | None | Costly default rates | Nobody, except as a short bridge |
How to choose the best energy company for your gas contract
The best energy company is not always the one with the lowest headline rate. Compare five things:
Full annual cost, including standing charge and VAT, not just the unit rate.
Contract terms, such as term length, renewal notice and price-change clauses.
Exit fees, so you know what leaving early costs.
Support and billing, including accurate bills and a human to call.
Supplier strength, meaning licensed, well-reviewed suppliers.
SwitchUrEnergy compares business gas quotes from a wide panel that includes British Gas, E.ON Next, ScottishPower, TotalEnergies, EDF, Utilita and Yu Energy, though not every provider. Our comparison is free: we are paid by supplier partners when you switch, and a Letter of Authority never lets us sign a contract without your consent.
Seven actions to take this month
Find your contract end date, MPRN and tariff type.
Gather 12 months of bills so quotes compare like for like.
Check you are not already on deemed or out-of-contract rates.
Start comparing six to twelve months before renewal using our free quote form.
Choose a term: 12 months for flexibility, 24 for blended pricing and stability.
Set a target price and a decision deadline, then stick to both.
Trim demand by servicing boilers and tuning thermostats and timers. Gas often sets wholesale power prices too, so compare business electricity at the same time.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Here are answers to the questions we hear most often.
Will UK gas prices go down in 2027?
Forward markets point to lower prices for summer 2027 and winter 2027/28 than this winter. Low storage and geopolitical risk mean it is not guaranteed, and prices are unlikely to return to pre-2021 levels.
What is the UK natural gas price today?
At the 9 November close, winter gas settled at 201 pence per therm, about 6.9p per kWh wholesale. A delivered business rate is higher once network costs, levies and margin are added.
Does the Ofgem price cap apply to businesses?
No. It protects households on default tariffs. Business prices are set by your contract, so a fixed deal is your main protection.
Should I fix my gas price now or wait?
If your contract ends within months, waiting risks expensive out-of-contract rates. Nobody can time the bottom, so set a target price and fix when a quote reaches it.
How long does switching take?
Usually two to six weeks for business accounts, with no interruption to your supply. Our switching timeline guide shows what to expect.
Why is my gas rate higher than the wholesale price?
Wholesale is only part of the bill. Transport, metering, levies, supplier costs and margin sit on top.
Final Words
Will UK wholesale gas prices fall in 2027? The market says probably, with summer 2027 and winter 2027/28 priced about a quarter below this winter. But storage is thin, supply is still short, and prices remain roughly three times pre-2021 norms. The sensible response is not to bet on the bottom. Know your contract end date, compare early and use fixed energy deals to turn an uncertain market into a budget you can plan around.
Ready to see what the market offers your business? Get your free gas quote or call (0203) 9500885, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm.
Disclaimer: This article is general information, not financial advice. Prices change daily and figures were checked in November 2026.